4/8/09 Wednesday – Twins vs. Mariners
Pitching Probables
Twins: Kevin Slowey (2008): 3.99 ERA, 160.1 IP, 161 H, 123K, 24 BB, 22 HR
Background: Right about this time last year, the question most often asked about Slowey was whether he would develop a strikeout pitch. With 123 K in 161 innings in 2008, the question this year is just how good he can be.
Watch For: He’ll throw the fastball 2/3 of the time and then mix his curve and slider evenly, and add the changeup when facing left-handers. His control is his true strength, and he’ll stay with his mix of pitches whether he’s ahead or behind in the count.
Mariners: Carlos Silva (2008): 6.46 ERA, 153.1 IP, 213 H, 69 K, 32 BB, 20 HR
Background: Hittable pitchers are always viewed as a risk, and after years of proving his detractors wrong with a mixture of control and courage, Silva had that year that critics had predeicted. It was made of all the worse because it was his first year with his new team after signing a huge contact. He’ll try and rediscover the mix of pitches that made him successful several years with the Twins.
Watch For: At the beginning of Silva’s Twins career, he relied heavily on a slider, but after a subpar 2006, they worked on him using his changeup more. Last year 75% of the pitches he threw were fastballs, with the changeup and slider almost evenly splitting the others.
Considering that the Twins mostly faced Silva last year when he was struggling, it should be too big a surprise that the team is batting .386 against him as a group. Newcomer Joe Crede has the most experience against him, hitting .333 with 3 HR over 33 at-bats, good for a 1020 OPS.
4/7/09 – Twins vs Mariners
Pitching Probables
Twins: Nick Blackburn (2008): 4.05 ERA, 193.1 IP, 96 K, 39 BB, 224 H, 23 HR
Background: You would think a guy that led the staff in innings pitched might get a little more respect, but Blackburn was supposed to be the #5 pitcher in the rotation before Baker’s injury shuffled things. He’s overcoming knee surgery that delayed his participation in spring training, but coming off of a couple of extra days of rest.
Watch For: He lets the ball be put in play. His hit numbers above are what scare people, but he is stingy with walks to compensate. In terms of his overall stats, he’s reminiscent of Carlos Silva – both the good and the bad – except he’s not a ground ball pitcher.
Mariners: Erik Bedard (2008): 3.67 ERA, 81 IP, 72 K, 37 BB, 70 H, 9 HR
Background: The 30-year-old left-hander is a heck of a pitcher when he’s healthy. Unfortunately for the Mariners, he hasn’t been healthy much since they traded for him prior to 2008. Unfortunately for the Twins, he is now.
Watch For: He doesn’t change things up much. He throws his fastball about 2/3 of the time and relies on his curveball most of the rest of the time. And it doesn’t matter much what the count is or who he’s facing, though he’ll mix in a few more changeups when facing right-handed batters.
Justin Morneau has owned Bedard, with 8 hits in 16 at-bats including two home runs. Joe Crede has not, having never produced a hit in 11 at-bats.
4/6/09 Monday – Twins vs Seattle
Update
The luster in this matchup was dimmed a bit by the abscence of so many star-caliber players. For the last month we suspected that Joe Mauer would be missing, but last week we found out that Scott Baker wasn’t going to be the Opening Day starter because of a stiff shoulder. And yet the Mariners might have had even a worse surprise.
This weekend their star leadoff man Ichiro Suzuki went on the DL with a bleeding ulcer. Suzuki just led Team Japan to a World Baseball Chamipionship title and was being followed by hordes of Japanese media as he was three hits shy of breaking the record for most hits by a Japanese player. Like Baker, his team hopes he’ll be back soon, but Twins fans will miss their only chance to see Suzuki this year live.
Pitching Probables
Twins: Francisco Liriano (2008): 3.91 ERA, 76 IP, 67K, 32 BB, 74 H, 7 HR
Background: He wasn’t supposed to be the Opening Day starter, but Scott Baker was put on the DL. Since that happened during the last week of spring training, Liriano is being pressed into duty with just three days of rest, whereas most starting pitchers get four.
Watch For: Considering he’s know for his stuff and strikeouts, it might suprise you to know that Liriano throws his fastball less frequently than any other Twins starter. Liriano throws it around 50% of the time, while most of the rest of the starters throw it closer to 70%.
If you watch the radar gun, you’ll see that Liriano will use his fastball early in the count or when he’s ahead in the count, and his slider when he falls behind. Once he gets two strikes on a batter he’s more likely to throw a slider than anything else. He saves his changeup almost exclusively for right-handed batters. And he likes to attack right-handed batters inside and low.
Mariners: “King” Felix Hernandez (2008): 3.45 ERA, 200.2 IP, 175K, 80 BB, 198 H, 17 HR
Background: Hernandez was supposed to be the next big thing when he came into the majors four years ago. Such is the problem with hype. The 22-year-old has over 666 innings under his belt alread and a career .3.80 ERA – and still people are dissappointed with him. We should all have such dissappointment.
Watch For: He leans most on the fastball, but he has three offspeed pitches and uses them all equally. Also, his pitch selection doesn’t change much – ahead in the count, behind in the count, two strikes, first pitch – with one exception. Versus left-handed batters, he’ll use his changeup quite a bit, but he almost never uses it against right-handers.
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