Monday

Twins: Glen Perkins(LHP) - 5.55 ERA, 84.1 IP, 101 H, 40 K, 20 BB, 9 HR

- In April, he was the Twins' best pitcher.  In May, their worst.  That led to nearly a month-long stay on the disabled list for an irritated unlar nerve in his elbow. 

- He's been inconsistent since returning, with his last start being the most painful, both figuratively and literally.  He gave up eight runs, all earned, against the Athletics, and then revealed that his shoulder was hurting.  An examination showed tendonitis, which can be treated with medication.  He's not expected to miss this start. 

- He's basically a three-pitch pitcher, but really relies on just two pitches depending on the batter.  Versus right-handers he'll throw his fastball and a changeup.  Versus left-handers, it's a fastball and slider, and he also likes to use that slider as his strikeout pitch.  He relies on his fastball about 70% of the time, and that goes up when he's behind in the count.  Finally, he will mix in a curveball as a "show-me" pitch. 

- His Achilles' heal?  Strangely enough, it's left-handed batters. That can be misleading, since often only the best left-handed hitters remain in the lineup against southpaws like Perkins, but they're hitting .351 this year and .333 against him for their career. 

- Fortunately, he's had quite a bit of success against some of the White Sox bigger guns, like Paul Konerko (3 for 12), Jermaine Dye (2 for 11) and Jim Thome (1 for 8). 

White Sox: John Danks(LHP) - 3.98 ERA, 106.1 IP, 97 H, 92 K, 40 BB, 12 HR

- Danks is a 24-year-old left-handed pitcher who threw together a 3.32 ERA over 195 innings last year.  That was his second year in the majors, and his success was due to learning a cut fastball from pitching coach Don Cooper that made him much more effective against right-handers. 

- He's a flyball pitcher, so his success and failure depends a lot on whether he keeps the ball in the park.  So far, he's been about average in that category, and his ERA bears that out. 

- He's very similar to Perkins.  He's basically a three-pitch pitcher, relies on just two pitches depending on the batter, and those pitches are the fastball-changeup to right-handers and fastball-slider to southpaws.  He also shows a curveball as a fourth pitch occasionally.  He's different in that he likes to use his changeup to strike people out, and throws his fastball a little bit less than Perkins.  But you're seeing remarkably similar pitchers. 

- Also like Perkins, he's overcoming a medical condition for this start.  In Danks' case, it was a blister caused by a circulatory problem in his left index finger.  The solution?  He's given up chewing tobacco. 

- The heart of the Twins order has had a LOT of success against Danks in the past.  Justin Morneau has 3 HR to go with his .318 BA, and Michael Cuddyer(.476 BA),  Joe Mauer(.450) and Jason Kubel(.462) all have hit better than .400 against him. 

Tuesday

Twins:  Kevin Slowey(RHP) - 4.11 ERA, 61.1 IP, 79 H, 44K, 5BB, 9 HR

- Slowey had a great spring, raising hopes, but struggled mightily with his consistency early in the season.  Not any more.  He delivered another quality starts versus the mighty BoSox last week, and that his fourth quality start in a row.

- It's very had for a pitcher who gives up that many hits to be a starting job in the majors.  The average major leaguer, in 61 innings, would have given up about 61 hits.  Slowey has give up 79.  And that home run number is high too.  How is he getting away with it?

- Because hits are practically the only way guys get on base against Slowey.  He refuses to give up any free passes.  5 walks in 61 innings?  Seriously?  The average major leaguer would have about 20.  That's Silvesque, back when Carlos Silva was silly good.  Or, if you prefer a 90's Twins reference, that's Tewksburrific. 

- It's a bit of a cliché that Slowey doesn't have great stuff, but he can average a 91-93 MPH fastball.  But the reason he should be better than average is he can control all three of his off-speed pitches, and doesn't need to rely on one or the other if he's behind or ahead in the count. 

Indians:  David Huff(LHP) - 10.97 ERA, 10.2 IP, 18 H, 7 K, 6 BB, 3 HR

- The good news for Twins fans?  Huff has had three major league starts and has yet to last more than four innings in any of them.  The bad news?  His last start was cut short by rain, and he had pitched four scoreless inning to the Devil Rays prior to that. 

- The good news?  Just look at those major league numbers so far.  The bad news?  His AAA numbers are decent, posting a 4.35 ERA, with 32K and 16BB in 39.1 IP.  He also gave up 35 hits.  Those numbers are almost perfect average, except that he put them up in high altitude Colorado Springs. 

- He's not a particularly hard-throwing left-hander, similar to other pitchers that the Indians have developed in recent years, like Jeremy Sowers. 

- The Twins have traditionally struggled against left-handed pitchers, and that's the perception this year.  But it's not the reality.  The Twins OPS against right-handed pitchers is .776 (9^th in the league) and versus left-handed pitches it is .779 (12^th in the league). 

Friday

Twins: Kevin Slowey(RHP) - 4.50 ERA, 48 IP, 65 H, 35 K, 4 BB, 8 HR

- You'll notice the four walks in 48 innings, which is incredible.  An average major league starter would have closer to 12.  That helps him considerably, because Slowey has always given up hits, usually about one per inning (which is also about the major league average).  But 65 in 48 innings?  No wonder he's struggling.

- He's been inconsistent this year, but his last starts was one of his best of the year.  He held the Yankees to just two runs in Yankee Stadium over 7.2 innings. More significantly, he struck out eight, his season high.  Might we finally be seeing the Slowey we expected? 

- His stats say he needs to make adjustments versus left-handers. They're really crushing him this year, hitting .362.  Worse, 17 of those 38 hits have been for extra bases. 

- Slowey has generally had good success versus the Brewers.  Ryan Braun is 0 for 9 against him, and Jason Kendall is 0 for 8.  But JJ Hardy is 3-7 with a home run.   

- About 70% of the time the radar gun will tell you he's throwing his fastball.   He evenly uses the curve, slider and changeup the rest of the time.  That doesn't vary much, whether he's behind or ahead in the count.

Brewers: Manny Parra(LHP) - 4.57 ERA, 43.1 IP, 43 H, 39 K, 26 BB, 4 HR

- The 26-year-old Parra was a prospect in the Brewers system for years, but kept battling injuries. Finally in 2007 he broke through, racing through three levels in the minors including throwing a perfect game in AAA Nashville.  A breakthrough 2008 in the majors was expected.

-   It didn't happen.  He had shown control throughout the minors, but struggled with it in  the majors.  By September he (and his 1.5ish WHIP) was demoted to the bullpen. 

- But he's had a second chance this year due to a lack of options.  He really struggled in April (6.52 ERA), but he's heated up in May (3.00 ERA).  The difference?  His strikeouts have jumped up a bit.  

- But he still looks like he's struggling with his control. Look at his innings pitched compared to Slowey.  Now look at their walks.  These are two very different pitchers.

- Versus right-handers, he's a 3 pitch guy, using his fastball, then his changeup, and finally his curve.  But versus left-handers he almost never uses the changeup.  If he's ahead in the count, he'll throw a lot of offspeed.  If behind, he'll throw a fastball ¾ of the time. 

- Even last year he was good against the Twins, shutting them out for seven innings.  Only Nick Punto and Delmon Young (who won't be with the team) have any hits off of him. 

Saturday

Twins: Anthony Swarzak (RHP) -  2.25 ERA, 44 IP, 40 H, 32 SO, 11 BB, 1 HR

- Yeay!  We get to see a major league debut!

- Swarzak has been a highly rated prospect for the Twins for years after being drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft.  The first pick in that draft was Glen Perkins, who Swarzak is replacing in the rotation because Perkins was placed on the DL after his last start. 

- But the last couple of years have been a rocky ride.  In 2007 he served a 50-game suspension for a "drug of abuse" (as opposed to a performance-enhancing drug like steroids).  In 2008 he really struggled in AA-New Britain, but was promoted to AAA-Rochester midyear anyway....

- And then it all changed.  In AAA he posted a 1.80 ERA over his seven starts.  And it has continued this year. 

- His minor league numbers are good, not great, so far this year.  Most striking (and encouraging, considering he's facing the Brewers) is that he's only given up one home run. 

- He is supposed to have a plus fastball and curve. 

- The Twins have said that even when Perkins comes back, Swarzak might have a role in the bullpen. 

Brewers: Braden Looper(RHP) - 4.26 ERA, 44.1 IP, 47 H, 27 K, 16 BB, 8 HR

- Looper looks like a 34-year-old veteran pitcher, whose numbers are league-average in almost every way.  But his career has been backward....

- He's pitched in the NL for all 11 years of his career, including several years as a closer for the Marlins and Mets.  That changed two years ago with the Cardinals, when he started in the Cardinals rotation.  He signed with the Brewers this year. 

- He was very good in April (2.26 ERA) but has really struggled in May (6.05 ERA).  The difference is that he's given up a lot of home runs lately.  He's also given up six of his eight home runs this year to left-handed batters. 

- He's a two-pitch pitcher, but they vary depending on whether he's facing a right-handed or a left-handed batter.  Versus lefties he throws fastball-changeup.  Versus righties it is fastball-curve. 

Sunday

Twins: Scott Baker(RHP) - 6.98 ERA, 38.2 IP, 43 H, 29 K, 10 BB, 10 HR

- Has it only been two months?  Because Baker's year has had enough drama for a full season.  He was shelled in spring training, missed his Opening Day start with a sore shoulder, and then gave up so many home runs in his first two starts that his manager actual said "He stinks right now. Not all the time. But right now he does. And he needs to un-stink."

- But he progressed.  In his 3^rd start, he gave up runs, but they weren't home runs.  In his fourth start, he gave up runs, but they were all in the seventh inning after throwing a no-hitter for the first six innings.  Finally, he threw seven innings of shutout ball en route to his first win of the year. Things looked good...

- And then he regressed.  His last two starts, against division rivals Detroit and Chicago, he's given up nine runs in eleven innings.  In his last start,  he gave up two home runs again and frustrations boiled over.  He has been victimized all year by 'big' innings, where he looks like he loses confidence.  Your guess is as good as anyone what to expect this time out. 

- Has four pitches, but about 2/3 of the time he dials up his fastball, with sliders being his second favorite.  He especially likes to throw the slider when he's ahead in the count, or with two strikes.  

- He's faced the Brewers a fair amount for a National League team.  Brewers hitters have 63 at-bats and are hitting .286 against Baker with three home runs.  Bill Hall has three hits in nine at-bats, and two of them are home runs. 

Brewers: Dave Bush(RHP) - 3.74 ERA, 53 IP, 46 H, 38 K, 11 BB, 9 HR

- Bush is another fairly solid, but not spectacular, starting pitcher.  The 29-year-old puts up decent numbers, gets a good amount of ground balls, but gives up too many home runs.  That's been his mantra for several years, and it's continuing this year.  That's how you beat Dave Bush.  You hit home runs. 

- He comes into this game having thrown four quality starts in a row.

- It looks like teams like to load up their lineup with left-handers against him, but historically he seems to be just about as good against them.  This year, in fact, lefties are only hitting .212 against him, while right-handers are hitting .273. 

- More evidence that right-handers can hit Bush?  Cuddyer has crushed him over his career.  He's six for eleven (.545), including a home run. 

- He's a four pitch guy, favoring his curveball as his top offspeed pitch, but mixing in his changeup (mostly vs LHs) and his slider (mostly vs RHs) too.  

Tuesday

Twins: Kevin Slowey(RH) - 5.50 ERA, 34.1 IP, 50 H, 25 K, 2 BB, 6 HR

- Example #69,432 of why we don't show the nearly worthless "Win" stat for pitchers:  Slowey is 4-1, but has just two quality starts in his six outings.  He started with two forgettable outings, was dominant in his next two, but then floundered in his last two. 

- You'll notice the two walks in 34 innings, which is incredible.  An average major league starter would have closer to 11.  That helps him considerably, because Slowey has always given up hits, usually about one per inning (which is also about the major league average).  But 50 in 34 innings?  No wonder he's struggling.

- It's not all doom and gloom.  He had a great spring, and looked poised to breakout this season after posting a 3.99 ERA last year.  His middle two starts show he has the talent.  He just needs to make adjustments, particularly to lefthanders.  They're really crushing him this year, hitting .364.  And fully half of all those hits have been for extra bases. 

- But getting on track will be difficult against Detroit.  Of the six Tigers who have faced Slowey at least five times, five of them are batting at least .333. 

Tigers: Armando. Galarraga(RH) - 4.08 ERA, 35.1 IP, 33 H, 29 K, 16 BB, 4 HR

- Baseball wonks are fond of pointing out all the starting pitchers that the Texas Rangers, a team that perennially needs starting pitching, have given away, but they often overlook Galarraga.  He came to the Tigers just before last year in a swap of minor leaguers, but the injury to Dontrelle Willis gave him a chance and he ran with it posting a 3.73 ERA.

- Prior to that, the 27-year-old wasn't a highly sought prospect, and even coming into this season, he had his detractors.  A 1.85 ERA in April tends to silence the critics.

- He's struggled his last two outings, and is sporting a 9.00 ERA in May.  He's giving up home runs this month (3 already). 

- Overall lefties are hitting .286 against him this year, so it shouldn't be too surprising that Morneau, Mauer and Bushcer all have career batting averages north of .300 against him.  And Kubel?  He's just 3-14, but one of those is a home run. 

Wednesday

Twins: Glen Perkins - 3.73 ERA, 41 IP, 38 H, 22 K, 8 BB, 3 HR

- Perkins was the best Twins starter earlier this year bar none, beginning the season with three quality starts where he went at least 8 innings and gave up no more than two runs.

- But since then he's struggled, posting a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts. 

- The difference?  Statistically there hasn't been a on of difference, other than just giving up more hits.  But if you look at the individual pitches, it looks like there has been slightly less control, and that's resulted in more hits and less favorable counts. 

- Perkins is likely not disappointed that Carlos Guillen is out of the lineup this series.  He's 5 for 10 against him.  Miguel Cabrera is 4 of 10 with a home run.. 

Tigers: Dontrelle Willis - 0.00 ERA, 0 IP, 0 H, 0 K, 0 BB, 0 HR

- If he wasn't pitching against the Twins, he's the kind of guy you might want to root for.  Willis.  Willis was one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball as a 21-year-old in 2003, winning NL Rookie-of-the-Year honors.  Two years later he finished second in the NL Cy Young voting. 

- In 2007 his performance declined markedly with the Marlins, but that didn't stop the Tigers from acquiring him in a blockbuster trade AND signing him to a guaranteed three-year contract for $29 million.

- Things fell apart in 2008.  he struggled so badly that the Tigers sent him down to Single-A to rework his trademark delivery.  It seemingly didn't help much, as he earned a 8.53 ERA in September.

- If only that was the worst of it.  This year, after struggling in spring training, he was put on the disabled list with an anxiety disorder.  He's worked his way back through the minors, including two starts in AAA where he posted a 3.55 ERA over 12.2 innings.  That included eight strikeouts, six walks, twelve hits and one home run.  This is his first start of the year.

- Previously he threw about 75% fastballs, and then sliders versus left-handed batters and sliders and changeups against right-handed batters.  In the past, a good chunk of his success was thought to be due to the deception inherent in his funky delivery. 

Thursday

Twins: Scott Baker - 6.83 ERA, 27.2 IP, 31 H, 21 K, 5 BB, 8 HR

- It's been a rough road for Baker this year, and we're only in mid-May.  He was shelled in spring training, missed his Opening Day start with a sore shoulder, and then gave up so many home runs in his first two starts that his manager actual said "He stinks right now. Not all the time. But right now he does. And he needs to un-stink."

- The progression continued.  In his 3^rd start, he gave up runs, but they weren't home runs.  In his fourth start, he gave up runs, but they were all in the seventh inning after throwing a no-hitter for the first six innings.  And last week he threw seven innings of shutout ball en route to his first win of the year. 

- Beware of Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson.  That's generally true, but especially for Baker.  In 28 at-bats, Ordonez has 12 hits.  And in 34 at-bats, Granderson has a reasonable nine hits, but four of them are home runs. 

Tigers: Justin Verlander(RH) - 4.50 ERA, 44 IP, 38 H, 56 K, 14 BB, 3 HR

- Verlander's success in previous years coincided with  (and drove) the rise of the Tigers in the middle of this decade.  His struggles last year (4.84 ERA) coincided (and partly drove) the egg the Tigers laid in 2008.   It isn't clear which direction Verlander and the Tigers are going this year, but it's a good bet it'll be the same direction.

- The Tigers ace, Verlander was borderline awful early in the year, posting a 9.00 ERA after his first four starts.  Since then, he's been awesome, giving up just one run over his last three starts and 23 innings.  His last game was a two-hit shutout. 

- Whether it's coincidence or not, I don't know, but Verlander has a 0.95 ERA at home and a 7.20 ERA on the road. Let's hope that holds up.

- Even in an uneven year, he's been death to right-handed batters who are hitting just .191 against him. 

- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Crede are all hitting .333 or better against Verlander over his career.

Friday

Twins: Scott Baker(RH) - 9.15 ERA, 20.2 IP, 26 H, 16 K, 5 BB, 8 HR

- Baker missed the first week of the season with shoulder stiffness, and struggled in spring training too.  Then he came back and gave up seven home runs in 8.2 innings in his first two starts. His third start he showed some improvement - he still gave up four runs over six innings, but they weren't home runs.  And his fourth start was even better, throwing a no-hitter for six innings before completely falling apart (5 ER and no outs) in the seventh. 

- His primary offspeed pitch is slider, but he'll mix in curves and changeups.  When he falls behind in the count, he'll rely on his fastball. 

- Several Mariners have had success against Baker in their career.  Most surprising is Jose Lopez, whose career average is just .271, but who is 9-18 against Baker. 

Mariners: Chris Jakubauskas(RH) - 5.76 ERA, 25 IP, 26 H, 11 K, 6 BB, 1 HR

- It's feel-good story time.  Guy toils in the independent leagues as a pitcher through his early and mid-20s, with no hope in sight of ever being a major leaguer.  Suddenly, he's signed by a big league club.  Over the next year he races through 3 levels of the minors.   - At the next spring training the 30-year-old pitches his way onto the rotation.  Yes, it's a feel-good story.  Let's hope the Twins stomp all over this little Disneyesque fairy tale.

He's 30, he's right-handed, he doesn't strike out many, but also keeps the ball in the park.  - He looks like basically a two-pitch pitcher - fastball and curve.  In his last start, he only threw a changeup twice, and no sliders.  He has trouble finishing off hitters when he's ahead in the count.

- Left-handers are hitting .308 against him.  That bodes well for the middle of the order. 

Saturday

Twins: Twins: Francisco Liriano(LH) - 5.30 ERA, 35.2 IP, 32 H, 29 K, 14 BB, 4 HR

-Liriano was beat up pretty good earlier in the year, but his last two starts have both been quality starts, giving up just two runs in each and going about seven innings. 

- His biggest issue has been his control, but he's pitched better than his ERA, and he's also gradually improved this year. 

- Believe it or not, Liriano throws his fastball less than the other Twins starters.  Versus right-handers he'll throw about 50% fastballs and then 25% sliders and changeups.  Against left-handers, he almost completely abandons the changeup and becomes a two-pitch pitcher. 

- Ichiro is 5-13 against Liriano in his career.  On opening night, Ken Griffey went 1-3 against Liriano, but that hit was a home run. 

Mariners: Felix Hernandez(RH) - 3.38 ERA, 40 IP, 37 H, 45 K, 10 BB, 3 HR

- Hernandez was supposed to be the next big thing when he came into the majors four years ago.  Such is the problem with hype.  The 22-year-old has over 666 innings under his belt already and a career 3.80 ERA - and still people are disappointed with him.  We should all have such disappointment.  

- He leans most on the fastball, but he has three offspeed pitches and uses them all equally.  Also, his pitch selection doesn't change much - ahead in the count, behind in the count, two strikes, first pitch - with one exception.  Versus left-handed batters, he'll use his changeup quite a bit, but he almost never uses it against right-handers.  

- You may remember that he started against the Twins on Opening Night (the Mariners won) but that he hurt his ankle.  That's bothered him throughout the season so far.  His last starts was his worst of the year, and most telling is that he gave up a lot of fly balls which isn't his style.

- He's dominated most Twins throughout his career, with the BIG exception of Joe Mauer who is 8-14 with a home run against him. 

Sunday

Twins: N. Blackburn - 5.19 ERA, 34.2 IP, 44 H, 13 K, 10 BB, 3 HR

- Blackburn has been remarkable consistent this year, going 5-7 innings, and giving up 2-4 runs in most of his starts.  If the definition of a good starting pitcher is that he "give you a chance to win", then Blackburn is a good starting pitcher.

- Or at least he was before his last outing.  In a clunker versus the Tigers, he gave up six earned runs (and nine runs total) in just 3.1 innings.  To be fair, the Twins defense was absolutely brutal that day.

- Endy Chavez is 3-3 against Blackburn over his career.  Adrian Beltre is 3-5 with 4 RBI against him. 

Mariners: Erik Bedard - 2.37 ERA, 38 IP, 34 H, 39 K, 6 BB, 3 HR

- The 30-year-old left-hander is a heck of a pitcher when he's healthy.  Unfortunately for the Mariners, he hasn't been healthy much since they traded for him prior to 2008.  Unfortunately for the Twins, he is now. 

- He doesn't change things up much.  He throws his fastball about 2/3 of the time and relies on his curveball most of the rest of the time.  And it doesn't matter much what the count is or who he's facing, though he'll mix in a few more changeups when facing right-handed batters.

- Justin Morneau has owned Bedard, with 8 hits in 16 at-bats including two home runs.  But in the opening series of the year, Morneau went 0-3 against him.  So maybe he's due.    

Friday

Twins: Kevin Slowey(RH) - 4.44 ERA, 26.1 IP, 36 H, 19 K, 2 BB, 5 HR

·        He's BA-aaaacccck.  After opening the season with two crummy starts, he's had to very good starts, giving up just three runs over those 15 innings.  That's more like what we expected after his outstanding spring training.

·        And the Twins are rewarding him by stretching him out, too.  He's thrown 114 pitches in both of the last two starts.  That's a pretty heavy workload this early in the season.  Hopefully it doesn't catch up to him tonight.  (BTW, it shouldn't.  The Baseball Prospectus study that concludes that a high pitch count can negatively affects performance says it doesn't matter until they pitcher gets to about 120 pitches.)

·        Lefties are hitting Slowey at a .370 clip this season.  That may or may not be significant this early in the season, but it's something to watch.

·        Watch out for Mark Teahan.  He's 4-10 with a home run against Slowey.

Royals: Sidney Ponson(RH) - 5.79 ERA, 23.1 IP, 26 H, 17 K, 10 BB, 2 HR

·        He's BA-aaaacccck.  Remember that ex-girlfriend that treated you shabbily, so you finally ended it, only she keeps showing up and ruining your parties because she's dating a friend of a friend?  Fortunately for your sanity, Sir Sidney looks just about as bad as you remember.  Still, he'll be trying to ruin the party again.

·        During the World Baseball Championship the Netherlands team made a feel-good run in the playoffs by knocking off the Dominican Republic.  Minnesota fans heard about it because the pitching coach was Bert Blyleven, but the ace of that staff was Sidney Ponson.  That performance earned him some time in the Royals spring training, and despite a brutal spring the added him to the starting rotation. 

·        He's pitched better than that 5.79 ERA.  He isn't giving up that many hits, or home runs, and he's striking out quite a few.  Only his control is a problem, and even that's not crazy. 

·        In four starts, he's really only had one bad outing.  Two of them were quality starts. 

·        Cuddyer might get a break this game.  He's batted just .077 against Ponson in his career.

Saturday

Twins: Glen Perkins(LH) - 2.48 ERA, 29 IP, 23 H, 16 K, 6 BB, 0 HR

·        Perkins has been the best Twins starter this year, bar none, beginning the season with three quality starts where he went at least 8 innings and gave up no more than two runs.

·        But he struggled last weekend versus the Indians.  Was he out of sync, or tired, or just had a bad day?  The home plate umpiring for that game was pretty inconsistent, so that might have been a factor, too. 

·        Why you need to be careful with stats:  Right-handed batters are hitting just .189 against he left-handed Perkins, while left-handed batters are hitting .375.  But to know the full story, you should look at how many at-bats they have so far.  He's faced 90 at-bats against right-handers, and just 16 against left-handers.  That suggests that only the very best left-handed hitters are kept in the lineup to face his pitching, so it would make sense that they do pretty well. 

Royals: Brian Bannister(RH) - 0.69 ERA, 13 IP, 5 H, 3 K, 8 BB, 0 HR

·        After being a poster child for "pitcher without great stuff who just knows how to pitch" in 2007, Bannister got the snot kicked out of him in 2008, posting a 5.77 ERA in 32 starts. 

·        He didn't break camp with the team but came up a couple of weeks ago for a spot start and has been very impressive so far in his two starts.  Just check out that ERA.

·        More impressively, check out that hit number.  The average for a pitcher is about a hit per inning.  To allow just five in 13 innings is an indicator that he's sure doing something right.

·        On the other hand, look at that strikeout number.  In 13 innings, an average would be 8  or so.  How is he not missing bats, but also not giving up hits? 

·        Kubel is 7-18 against him with a home run in his career.  Casilla is 4-9 for his career.   

Sunday

Twins: Scott Baker - 9.82 ERA, 14.2 IP, 21 H, 12 K, 4 BB, 7 HR

·        We should probably start with a quote from his manager from last weekend: "He stinks right now. Not all the time. But right now he does. And he needs to un-stink."

·        Baker missed the first week of the season with shoulder stiffness, and struggled in spring training too.  Then he came back and gave up seven home runs in 8.2 innings in his first two starts.

·        That said, he didn't stink in his third start on Monday.  He still gave up four runs over six innings, but they weren't home runs, and a lot of that had to do with pitch selection or the inability of the catcher to properly block some pitches.  It'll be interesting to see the impact that Mauer has on Baker. 

·        The Royals are a good team against who to get back on track.  The only regular Royal who has hit over .214 against Baker is Mark Teahan, who is 7-23 over his career.  Only Coco Crisp has ever taken Baker yard (knock on wood).

Royals: Gil Meche - 3.77 ERA, 31 IP, 31 H, 27 K, 9 BB, 0 HR

·        Coming into 2007, Meche was the poster child for "overpaid starting pitchers" when he signed a five-year $55 million deal by the Royals.  Which also made the Royals the poster child for "hopelessly stupie team that will never go anywhere".  After posting a 3.81 ERA over the first 2+ years of that deal, it's safe to say both were wrong.

·        He's a four-pitch guy, with the curve being the off-speed pitch he'll use most often, but usually only when he's ahead in the count.  He seemingly doesn't trust it to find the strike zone when he's behind.

·        He's been fighting a bad back, but the Royals say he'll pitch.

·        Most Twins haven't hit Meche much, with the exceptions of Morneau (8-26, 2 HR) and Cuddyer (4-9).

Monday

Twins: Scott Baker(RH) - 12.46 ERA, 8.2 IP, 15 H, 5 K, 3 BB, 7 HR

·        Seven home runs in 8.2 innings.  Of those seven home runs, one was a slider that didn't slid, and the rest were all fastballs on the inside and upper edge of the strike zone. 

·        Baker missed the first week of the season with shoulder stiffness, and struggled in spring training too.  So the question is whether this is just bad location, or is that a place that Baker needs to pitch but can no longer sneak it past batters because of a loss of velocity? 

·        The radar gun readings on his fastball are about the same that we saw last April.  Of course, he gave up 6 home runs in two games last April too.  Hopefully this is something that he goes through early each year and eventually overcomes.

·        We would be remiss if we didn't pass along this little gem from manager Ron Gardenhire about Baker.  "He stinks right now. Not all the time. But right now he does. And he needs to un-stink."  Is it bad that we took that quote out of context?

Rays: Jeff Niemann(RH) - 5.40 ERA, 16.2 IP, 18 H, 9 K, 7 BB, 3 HR

·        The Rays are oozing pitching talent.  Niemann wasn't supposed to be on the staff this year, just because the starting rotation was already so crowded, but he made it because the Rays demoted stud prospect (and postseason hero) David Price for a little more seasoning at AAA.

·        He hasn't been good, not great, so far, but he numbers in AAA last year suggest he will be great soon enough.  In 133 innings, he struck out 128, walked just 50, and gave up just 101 hits.  In many organizations he would be the top blue chip pitching prospect.

·        Lefties are hitting .300 against him, but right-handers have all three home runs he's given up.

·        You aren't seeing things.  He really is 6' 9".

Tuesday

Twins: Francisco Liriano(LH) - 7.06 ERA, 21.2 IP, 21 H, 17 K, 9 BB, 3 HR

·        Liriano hasn't had a great year, but that 7.06 ERA doesn't jive with the rest of those numbers.  That's not a lot of hits.  That's slightly worse than average in home runs.  The strikeouts are great.  And the walks aren't awful.  This is feeling like a bit of bad luck. 

·        A recent post by one of espn.com's writers suggested that Liriano has been throwing most fastballs this year, and that it hasn't been a good thing.  Inside Edge previously reported that he only throws fastballs about 51% of the time, which is the lowest percentage of the Twins starting pitchers.  He relies on his slider and changeup the rest of the time.

·        He's been much better at home, with just a 3.46 ERA in the Metrodome this year. 

Rays: James Shields(RH) - 3.67 ERA, 27 IP, 23 H, 13 K, 7 BB, 5 HR

·        Shields is the veteran dependable ace of the Rays pitching staff.  And he's just 27.

·        He's a fastball/changeup pitcher, and the two account for about 80% of the pitches he throws.  He can mix in curve and slider too. 

·         The stats suggest right-handers have hit him quite a bit better than left-handers this year.  Of course, the stats also suggest that only the best right-handed hitters are left in the lineup to face him when he pitches.

·        But several of the Twins have done pretty well against Shields.  Jason Kubel is 6 for 10 with a home run against him.  And if Joe Mauer makes it back by Tuesday, he'll be trying to improve on his .364 career average (4 for 11) against Shields. 

Wednesday

Twins: Nick Blackburn(RH) - 4.44 ERA, 24.1 IP, 28 H, 9 K, 6 BB, 1 HR

·        Blackburn confounds that stat guys.  He's right-handed.  He doesn't strike people out.  He doesn't get a lot of groundballs.  And yet he succeeds.  Watch and see if you can figure out how. 

·        His last start was wonderful.  After giving up four runs in each of his first three starts, he gave up just one over seven innings against the division rival Cleveland Indians last Friday night. 

·        Teams are stacking lineups with left-handers against him, and that's working for them.  They're hitting .289 off of Blackburn this year. 

·        Maybe most importantly, the knee surgery that limited him in spring training hasn't seemed to be an issue. 

Rays: Scott Kazmir(LH) - 3.97 ERA, 22.2 IP, 18 H, 17 K, 12 BB, 3 HR

·        Compare Kazmir's ERA Liriano above.  And then compare the rest of the numbers. 

·        He's also one of the Rays aces.  Last year, after starting the season battling some injuries, he still managed to finish in the top ten in strikeouts, and posted a 3.49 ERA.

·        He's been very good and very bad this year, depending on his control.  For instance, against the White Sox he started the game by walking the bases loaded, and lasted just four innings.  In his next start he also struggled with control early, but then retired the last eleven batters in a row. 

·        Expect him to be careful when facing Morneau.  Morneau has just three hits in 12 at-bats against Kazmir, but two of them are home runs.

Pitching Probables

Friday

Twins: N. Blackburn(RHP) - 5.73 ERA, 11 IP, 14 H, 2 K, 4 BB, 1 HR

·        Two strikeouts in eleven innings?  Two?!?  That's the kind of statistic that makes baseball statisticians' heads throb - or take smug satisfaction in a 5.73 ERA. 

·        But Blackburn has never been a strikeout pitcher and in both games he pitched well enough to win. 

·        Maybe most importantly, the knee surgery that limited him in spring training hasn't seemed to be an issue. 

Angels: D. Moseley(RHP) - 3.86 ERA, 11.2 IP, 15 H, 7 K, 2 BB, 2 HR

·        Moseley has been on the fringe of the Angels rotation for the last few years, and has the sort of 5^th pitcher/long reliever stats that you would expect.  He's trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2008 where he battled injuries that affected his performance in the majors and at AAA.

·        Besides his fastball, he mostly relies on his curve versus right-handers and his changeup against left-handers.  When he gets behind in the count and needs to throw a strike, he'll rely on his fastball more. 

·        No Twin has faced him more than twice.  Michael Cuddyer is 2 for 2 with a double against him. 

Saturday

Twins: Kevin Slowey(RHP) - 7.94 ERA, 11.1 IP, 22 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 HR

·        What's wrong with Slowey?  Everyone, including Slowey, wishes they knew.  After his first start, he and the coaching staff thought he was trying too hard to dominate.  After his second outing, manager Ron Gardenhire suggested maybe his offspeed pitches weren't slow enough.  And Slowey said he wanted to compare tapes from his two regular season starts to the success he had in spring training.  We'll see if they figured anything out. 

·        What we do know is that the ERA isn't an aberration or cheap runs.  Slowey gave up a hit an inning last year, and he's doubling that this year.

·        Most Angels don't have many hits against Slowey, but three have hit home runs against him - Bobby Abreu, Howie Kendrick and Gary Matthews Jr. 

Angels: Darren Oliver(LHP) - 2.45 ERA, 3.2 IP, 3 H, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 HR

·        Oliver is a veteran reliever who is going to be asked to make a couple of spot starts to replace deceased rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart, who was killed last week by a drunk driver hours after his first start of the year. 

·        He's a 38-year-old left-hander, and the Angels will likely need to go to their bullpen fairly early due to his pitch count.  That's not necessarily good news, as manager Mike Sciosia has traditionally done a great job stocking his bullpen.

·        Throws a fastball, curve and slider, and only the occasional changeup.

·        Lots of Twins have a little experience against Oliver, but nobody has more than 2 hits against him over their career. 

Sunday

Twins: Glen Perkins(LHP) - 1.69 ERA, 16 IP, 12 H, 8 K, 3 BB, 0 HR

·        Perkins has been the best Twins starter this year, bar none.  In fact, through 4/14 he's the only pitcher with a quality start (he has two) and has pitched through the eighth inning in both of his starts.

·        In nine plate appearances against Perkins, Bobby Abreu has four hits, two walks and a triple.  But he's the only Angel with more than one career hit against him. 

Angels: Shane Loux(RHP) - 3.38 ERA, 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 K, 3 BB, 0 HR

·        The 29-year-old has spent most of his time the last few years in AAA, but was called up for some starts last year.  He is being relied upon early this year as the Angels try to patch together a rotation to deal with Adenhart's death and injuries to John Lackey and Ervin Santana.

·        He mostly relies on his fastball and slider.

·        He faced the Twins once last year, but it was in relief of Joe Saunders in a 9-0 Twins win.  Loux gave up three runs over 3.2 innings including a home run to Denard Span. 

Pitching Probables

Monday

Twins: Kevin Slowey - 7.50 ERA, 6 IP, 9 H, 5 K, 0 BB, 2 HR

Background:  Slowey's first start didn't go like Twins Territory had hoped.  He admitted that he got a little too excited and a little too amped up to dominate hitters, and ended up giving up several hard hit balls (and two home runs) to the Mariner through hit first four innings.  He calmed down later to last six innings, and the Twins (and Slowey) ended up winning the game, but the Twins are expecting a better performance from Slowey over the rest of the season.

What to look for:  The batters on Toronto's roster have hit .364 against Slowey combined.  Yikes.  But in 55AB against Slowey, none of them have ever drawn a walk. 

Blue Jays: Jesse Litsch - 7.50 ERA, 6 IP, 7 H, 5 K, 1 BB, 3 HR

Background:  Litsch is a 24-year-old right-hander who has almost two years of major league experience and a tidy career ERA of just 3.75.  So how come you never hear anything about this guy?   Well, because the peripheral numbers, and particularly the strikeouts (154 K in 293 IP), are a little under whelming.  But how much longer does he need to have success before we start to overlook that?

What to look for:  It'll be interesting to see which outfielder Gardenhire sits against Litsch, because they all have had a fair amount of success against him.  Delmon Young is 4-13 (.308).  Cuddyer is 2-5 (.400) with a home run.  Denard Span is 2-4.  Carlos Gomez is 2-3 with a home run.  The only exception is Jason Kubel, who is just 1-7, but he's almost assuredly in the lineup because he's left-handed. 

Tuesday

Twins: Glen Perkins - 1.13 ERA, 8 IP, 5 H, 4 K, 2 BB, 0 HR

Background:  Perkins delivered the team's first quality start this season, but still got stung with an "L" after giving up just one run and five hits over eight innings against Seattle.  The Twins lost the game 2-0.

What to look for:  Hold your breath a little when Alex Rios comes up to bat.  He's 4-6 with a HR against Perkins. 

Blue Jays: Ricky Romero - 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 H, 5 K, 2 BB, 1 HR

Background: It's kind of hard to figure out what's going on here.  The 24-year-old left-hander was the #6 overall pick in the 2005 draft, but he had pretty much stalled out at AA after a couple of years, though he had a little more success in a short stint late last season in AAA.  This spring he came to camp and spend most of it working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg on rebuilding his delivery.  And now he's in the starting rotation?  It worked his first time out, as he held the Tigers to two runs over six innings and got the 'W'.

What to look for:  He's struggled with his control, and has given up lots of hits in the minors, but has never given up many home runs.  This looks like a good pitcher to play small ball against rather than wait for the three-run homer.

Wednesday

Twins: Scott Baker (2008) - 3.45 ERA, 172.1 IP, 161 H, 141 K, 42 BB, 20 HR

Background:  He's ba-ack.  Baker was supposed to not only be the pitcher at the top of the Twins rotation, but the pitcher at the top of the rotation for the next five years, as the Twins and he reached an agreement on a long-term contract this spring.  Then came the shoulder stiffness that knocked him out of his Opening Day start.  His rehab start in Fort Myers looked pretty good.  Now we'll get to see if he's really all the way back.

What to look for:  Baker is a fastball/slider pitcher who will mix in a curve or changeup occasionally.  He'll throw the fastball more when he gets behind in the count. The bigger names in Toronto's lineup have not had much success against him in their career.  Vernon Wells is just 2-9 (though one of those hits was a homerun) and Alex Rios is just 1-8.

Blue Jays: Scott Richmond - 6.75 ERA, 4 IP, 5 H, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 HR

Background:  Hey, Saints fans!  This one's for you.  Richmond is a 29-year-old graduate of the Northern League, where he played for the Edmonton Cracker-cats from 2005 through 2007.  The Jays signed him and placed him at AA, promoted him to AAA, and then to the majors.  Over the last two months of the season, he posted a 20:2 K:BB ratio.  Not bad....

What to look for:  It was a small sample size last year, but check out the splits against this right-handed pitcher:

Right-handed batters vs. Richmond:  47 AB, .128 BA, 313 OPS

Left-handed batters vs. Richmond: 61 AB, .426 BA, 1191 OPS

If ever there was a time to start Brian Buscher at third base, this is it. 

Thursday

Twins: Francisco. Liriano - 6.94 ERA, 11.2 IP, 10 H, 6 K, 4 BB, 2 HR

Background:  This year was supposed to be the year the F-Bomb was all the way back, but he's been less than dominant in his first two starts.  His last start in Chicago was marred by several walks, including two with the bases loaded.  It may not be much to worry about, and he wasn't especially wild in spring training.  He'll be looking to get back on track. 

Blue Jays: Roy Halladay - 3.86 ERA, 14 IP, 11 H, 9 K, 3 BB, 2 HR

Background:  You can get everything you need to know about Halladay from the Dugout Splinters in the Twins Official Scorecard.  Just sit back and enjoy this matchup.  It should be significantly more enjoyable for you than it'll be for the hitters. 

Pitching Probables

Twins: Glen Perkins (2008): 4.41 ERA, 151 IP, 183 H, 74 K, 39 BB, 25 HR

Background: I don't care if you are from Minnesota and left-handed - 183 hits in 151 inning is a little worrisome.  But it's worth noting that a lot of that damage was done in September, which also raised his ERA almost a half run.  And that's not too surprising considering the previous year he had been injured and thrown middle relief, tallying only 48 innings.

Watch For: Like most pitchers,  he'll throw his fastball about 2/3 of the time.  Against left-handers he'll split the rest between sliders and curveballs, while against right-handers he relies mostly on his changeup as his secondary pitch.  But when he falls behind in the count, the hitters should be looking for fastballs - he'll throw it about 80% of the time. 

Mariners: Jarrod Washburn - 

Background: Call it The Left-Handed Battle of the St. Croix.  Perkins went to high school in Stillwater, while Washburn was born in LaCrosse, WI. 

the 34-year-old Washburn is pitching out the last year of a four-year $37.5 million contract that the Mariners threw his way in 2006.  Over those three years, he's generally eaten innings, but hasn't posted an ERA under 4.32.  He had a similar run for the Angels, but posted a 3.20 ERA in his last salary drive. 

Watch For: Lots of Twins have lots of history with Washburn, but few have much success.  Of the guys who have faced him ten times or more, none have hit better than .250.  And that list includes the heart of the Twins batting order - Crede (.250), Morneau (.200), Cuddyer (.182) and Mauer (.182).  On the other hand, Alexi Casilla(4 for 8) and Brendan Harris (3 for 7) have had some success.